Modelled unemployment rate Official statistics in development

This indicator shows model-based estimates for the proportion of economically active people aged 16 years and over without a job who have been actively seeking work within the last four weeks and are available to start work within the next two weeks (official statistics in development), in Great Britain, for periods 2004 to 2023.

Data source:
Office for National Statistics (opens in a new tab)
Published on:
16 April 2024

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Selected time range 2004 to 2023
2004
2023

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Modelled unemployment rate

Modelled percentage of economically active people aged 16 years and over without a job and actively seeking work, lower tier/unitary authorities, 2023

Source: Office for National Statistics(link opens in a new tab)

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Modelled unemployment rate

Modelled percentage of economically active people aged 16 years and over without a job and actively seeking work, lower tier/unitary authorities, 2004 to 2023

Source: Office for National Statistics(link opens in a new tab)

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Bar chart

Modelled unemployment rate

Modelled percentage of economically active people aged 16 years and over without a job and actively seeking work, lower tier/unitary authorities, 2023

Source: Office for National Statistics(link opens in a new tab)

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Table

Modelled unemployment rate

Modelled percentage of economically active people aged 16 years and over without a job and actively seeking work, lower tier/unitary authorities, 2004 to 2023

Source: Office for National Statistics(link opens in a new tab)

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Interpretation

Unemployment rates are calculated as a percentage of aged 16 years and over economically active population.

As unemployed form a small percentage of the population, the Annual Population Survey (APS) unemployment estimates within local authorities are based on very small samples so for many areas are unreliable. To overcome this model-based estimates have been developed that provide better estimates of total unemployed for local authorities.

The ongoing challenges with response rates, response levels and weighting approach mean that labour market statistics based on both the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and Annual Population Survey (APS) will be considered official statistics in development until further review. Because of increased volatility of LFS and APS estimates, estimates of change should be treated with additional caution.

Updates to this indicator have been temporarily suspended until the APS reweighting is implemented in 2026.

The model-based estimate improves on the APS estimate by borrowing strength from the claimant count to produce an estimate that is more precise i.e. has a smaller confidence interval. The claimant count is not itself a measure of unemployment but is strongly correlated with unemployment, and, as it is an administrative count, is known without sampling error. The gain in precision is greatest for areas with smaller sample sizes.

Refer to the user guide (pdf) for further details.

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You can download this dataset in an XLSX, CSV or CSVW format, or download all available datasets in an XLSX or JSON-Stat format.

The original source data for this indicator can be found on the following page: Office for National Statistics(opens in a new tab).

Information on the strengths and limitations of the Explore Local Statistics service and methods used is available in the quality and methodology information (QMI) report.

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Other indicators

Modelled unemployment rate is one of 104 local indicators on the Explore local statistics service. See the full list of local indicators.

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